A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
