Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
